The Congressional Finances Workplace (CBO) not too long ago launched projections of US medical insurance ranges between 2024 and 2034. Within the Hale et al. (2024) examine, CBO estimates that:
…92.3 % of the US inhabitants, or 316 million folks, have protection in 2024, and seven.7 %, or 26 million, are uninsured. The uninsured share of the inhabitants will rise over the course of the subsequent decade, earlier than settling at 8.9 % in 2034, largely because of the top of COVID-19 pandemic–associated Medicaid insurance policies, the expiration of enhanced subsidies accessible by means of the Inexpensive Care Act medical insurance Marketplaces, and a surge in immigration that started in 2022. The most important enhance within the uninsured inhabitants might be amongst adults ages 19–44. Employment-based protection would be the predominant supply of medical insurance, and because the inhabitants ages, Medicare enrollment will develop considerably. After greater-than-expected enrollment in 2023, Market enrollment is projected to achieve an all-time excessive of twenty-three million folks in 2025.
CBO estimates that Medicare enrollment (in Elements A and B) will rise from 61m in 2024 to 74m in 2034. This isn’t stunning with an getting older inhabitants. Maybe extra stunning is that CBO tasks Medicare Benefit enrollment will rise from simply over half of beneficiaries in 2024 to just about two-thirds of beneficiaries in 2034.
CBO estimates for medical insurance ranges for the civilian noninstitutionalized inhabitants aged <65 years are based mostly on the CBO’s Well being Insurance coverage Simulation Mannequin (HISIM2), a structural anticipated utility mannequin. The main points behind the HISIM2 mannequin are defined in Hanson et al. (2023).
You may learn the full examine right here, and the complete baseline projections right here.